The calm before the storm

Times have changed ... Shenanigans have a long shelf life ... And paperwork is still important.

Over the next five months, the race to fill Raúl Grijalva’s seat in Congress will capture the nation’s attention.

In a narrowly divided Congress where every vote holds incredible weight, this once reliably blue district in Tucson will become a battleground. We expect to see both Democrats and Republicans flood the race with massive political funding, each side eager to secure a win in one of the only special elections in the country.

Special interest groups will pour millions into shaping the outcome, but ultimately, Tucson voters will determine who steps into this pivotal seat in Congress.

We asked our art intern, ChatGPT, to draw Democratic candidates David Bies, Deja Foxx, Daniel Hernandez, Victor Longoria and Adelita Grijalva. Not bad, huh?

The new political realities dictate that Southern Arizona will need a fighter in Congress. Whether we’re talking about Democratic or Republican values, Tucsonans are going to want someone to fight for our community.

It’s a unique moment – Raúl’s successor is likely to enjoy a safe, Democratic district for years, if not decades. We’re not saying a Republican can’t win the district, but Grijalva generally got two-thirds of the vote in the years when the GOP formally challenged him.

Judging by what we saw at recent rallies for Sen. Bernie Sanders and the Hands Off protests at Reid Park, somewhere along the way political conversations have shifted away from specific issues. Local protesters are now painting handmade signs reminding our neighbors we elected a president, not a king.

Yet Raúl was something of a king himself – or at least, a kingmaker.

The “Grijalva Machine” has become a pejorative in local politics, a catchall to blame Democrats for the latest political topic du jour: They lost Proposition 414; they failed to deliver voters last November; they are the reason your street didn’t get paved, detractors cry.

We’ve used the term for years in columns and in conversation to refer to the generation of men and women who Raúl mentored in his 50 years of service to the community. His legacy is undeniable, a whole lot of people have run for political office with his support and encouragement.

While the highest-profile example is his daughter, Adelita Grijalva, who is running for his seat in Congress, we should take a minute to recognize there are a number of politicians tied to Grijalva sitting on school boards, city councils, the state Legislature, as well as one who has become a judge here in Pima County.

Being part of this political network is a double-edged sword in Tucson politics, as his network of political allies is vast and deeply committed to liberal ideologies.¹ But the Grijalva network also has spawned a solid voting bloc of Democrats who are fiercely dedicated to upending his political dynasty.

While this is often a reference to the “Hernandi” political dynasty – and former state legislator Daniel Hernandez also is running for CD7 – there have been other political rivalries with Grijalva over the years.

But as this post from 2008 shows, a Grijalva endorsement can impact political fortunes, including then-presidential candidate Barack Obama. He was also the first to endorse Bernie Sanders in 2015.

It would be easy to write off those in power associated with Raúl as de facto political appointees using influence and money to scare off other candidates, but that’s also an easy way to gloss over their personal accomplishments and their failures.

The voters will decide whether this is the case for Adelita, who has built her own record of wins and losses as a former Tucson Unified School District board member and Pima County Supervisor.

In an era where resistance to the Trump administration is the new normal in Democratic politics, the race is going to be defined less by party elders. Instead, smaller Democratic activist circles will play an outsized role in this race.

Many may see both Hernandez’s and Adelita’s years of public service as a liability rather than an example of their commitment to the community.

There are likely many voters in CD7 looking for Tucson’s version of Democratic U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who came out of nowhere to upset incumbent Democratic congressman Joe Crowley in 2018. Local Democrats may want a fierce, unconventional choice — AOC was a bartender when she ran for Congress.

That could be social media strategist Deja Foxx, who gained national attention when she confronted then-U.S. Sen. Jeff Flake at a town hall eight years ago.

For now, there is a quiet calm in the Congressional District 7 race, with signatures due next week.

While 27 people have filed a one-page form for declaring their interest in the position, we are paying closer attention to those who have filed statements of candidacy and organization with the Federal Election Commission – a sign that they are serious about the race.

So get ready for a wild few months as the race takes off. We’ll be watching.

It takes time to understand Tucson’s unique political culture. And today you can get the insight you need at a steep discount!

More than 87,000 Tucson voters weighed in on Proposition 414 last month, with 70 percent rejecting the half-cent sales tax increase.

Far fewer have filled out the city’s budget survey.

That means most Tucsonans are missing out on their chance to influence (at least a little) the Tucson City Council’s decision-making as they consider the city’s $2.5 billion annual budget, and what we’re predicting will eventually be Proposition 415.

This is a rare opportunity to send a message to the Council. Among the questions in the survey – which closes on Friday – is identifying what Tucsonans consider “wasteful/unnecessary” spending.

So far, only 1,400 people have filled out the survey.

$2 million race: Former Pima County Sheriff candidate Lt. Heather Lappin filed a notice of claim against Sheriff Chris Nanos and the county demanding $2 million to settle, KVOA’s Chorus Nylander reports. The filing says Nanos suspended her to kneecap her campaign against him, including by using a “manufactured scandal” claiming that she let a reporter interview a prisoner, and the excuse that her friends protested against Nanos on their own time while wearing clothes that resembled a uniform. She lost the election by less than 500 votes.

Mad Men recruiting: University of Arizona President Suresh Garimella picked Patricia Prelock to be the new UA provost, Arizona Public Media’s Hannah Cree reports. She most recently was interim president at the University of Vermont – a position she stepped into when Garimella left the president job there to join UA. Prelock is now the third former University of Vermont official to join the leadership team at the UA.

Trying again: City of Tucson officials won’t give up on their dream of charging more money to Tucson Water customers who live outside the city limits, Arizona Daily Star columnist Tim Steller writes. A judge threw out the city’s argument two years ago, but now Tucson officials have come up with a new, complicated formula to get what they call a “recommended return on equity.” In a separate column, Steller took on the pro-business groups that donated big dollars to defeat Tucson’s Prop 414 sales tax last month, but are largely staying mum about the tariffs President Donald Trump put in place, which are sending the economy into a tailspin.

Movers and shakers: A downtown bakery opening a second location is just one of many moves local businesses have made lately, the Star’s Gabriela Rico reports in her rundown of real estate news. Beyond HeeMee Coffee and Pastries setting up shop at Main Gate Square near the UA campus, a health care company leased a behavioral health hospital building, a drone company is moving into a new industrial space, and many more.

Lost to history: After a legal battle, the Frontier Motel and the Copper Cactus Inn on West Drachman Street were torn down, KGUN reports. Local preservationists had wanted to keep the 1950s-era motels, which Pima Community College bought in 2018, but an Arizona appeals court judge sided with the PCC board and said the school could tear them down. The Tucson Inn is the only one of the three still standing.

If you want to run for office, you’re going to have to fill out a lot of paperwork, particularly if you’re going to run for every office under the sun.

Four candidates wanted to replace Adelita Grijalva on the Pima County Board of Supervisors, but were eliminated from contention on technicalities.

Three don’t live in the district. And perennial candidate Trista di Genova was removed because she apparently didn’t complete the paperwork.

She is, however, still listed as a candidate for Congressional District 7 with the Arizona Secretary of State’s Office.

Last year, di Genova ran for President of the United States but didn’t get much traction. So she then launched a write-in campaign for sheriff as an independent, losing to Democrat Chris Nanos.

1. Joe's very brief foray into local politics included an endorsement from Raúl. And Joe lost his reelection as constable, a reminder that Raúl's support isn’t necessarily the thumb on the scale that some people think it is.