November is going to be a big month for the monopoly that controls Tucson’s electric supply.
On November 3, Tucsonans will vote on Prop 421, the franchise agreement that will decide whether Tucson Electric Power gets another 25-year deal with the Old Pueblo.
Shortly after that, the Arizona Corporation Commission will decide how much Tucsonans will actually pay for their electric bills, as commissioners finally rule on the much-awaited rate-increase case where TEP is asking to jack up your bill by 11.6%.
In other words, Tucsonans are being asked to sign a 25-year contract with TEP before they even know what TEP is going to cost.
But yesterday, we got a little preview of what the price may be.
As part of the Corporation Commission’s rate case, an administrative law judge weighed in on TEP’s proposed increase in a massive 345-page opinion.
Before we get to what she said, let’s take a minute to note what an administrative law judge’s opinion is, and what it isn’t.
A rate case runs kind of like a trial. After a regulated utility files a request for a rate increase, everyone who wants a say can “intervene” with their own take. There’s discovery, testimony, witnesses, cross-examinations and a weeks-long evidentiary hearing.
Then, an administrative law judge (who is actually just a lawyer who works at the Corporation Commission) gives their opinion on the merit of the rate increase.
But none of that is binding.
That’s because the decision is ultimately in the hands of the commissioners — five Republicans who have routinely said “yes” to basically whatever the utilities want.
And it doesn’t look like Administrative Law Judge Julia Matter is doing much to change that.
After reviewing the evidence, Matter suggested that TEP should get an overall increase of 9.6%. And based on how she divvied it up, residential customers like you will probably shoulder an increase of around 11%.
That’s less than the 14% residential increase TEP originally wanted.
But it’s still a heck of an increase on people feeling the pinch on everything from groceries to gas.
Arizona Attorney General Kris Mayes holds a town hall in Tucson to collect feedback on how rate increases would impact locals.
And it’s far more than the 4% that Democratic Attorney General Kris Mayes — a former Republican corporation commissioner who intervened in the case — thinks is justifiable. (Besides Mayes, the City of Tucson, Pima County and Walmart have also intervened in the rate case opposing TEP’s proposed hike.)
Perhaps worse still, Matter opined that TEP can move ahead with a “formula rate” — which, as we’ve previously noted, would allow for small annual increases without going through a full rate case like this one. (For what it’s worth, the legality of formula rates is actively being challenged in court.)
On the bright side, the opinion also concluded that TEP should track all costs associated with “very large load” customers — a subtle nod that data centers popping up in Tucson will be closely scrutinized in terms of how much they are costing the electric utility. And Matter also said TEP should move ahead with a new program to help mobile home park tenants convert to individual utility meters from a single master meter that several groups have called predatory.
Keep in mind, this is all happening against the backdrop of skyrocketing utility prices and an intense backlash from the public. Today, advocates of starting a publicly owned utility are rallying in Armory Park.
And, of course, it’s going down as TEP spends millions attempting to sway voters into approving Prop 421.
As we noted yesterday, the utility has already spent $4 million on its campaign after losing a franchise agreement vote in 2023 by more than 10 percentage points.
A quick aside: That $4 million is double what TEP is promising Tucson’s climate action plan in the first year of the “Energy Collaboration Agreement” that’s baked into the franchise agreement as a sweetener.
A “no” vote on Prop 421 won’t stop TEP from being your power provider.
But what it might do is create some leverage — the same kind Tucson got when it killed the 2023 franchise agreement. After that failure, TEP came back this year killing the 2023 deal’s proposed 0.75% fee on customer bills and offering a total of $64 million in shareholder money to Tucson if the new franchise passes.
And while the rate hike isn’t up for a vote, some of the folks who could ultimately approve the rate hike are.
Republican Commissioner Kevin Thompson is running for reelection alongside Republican Ralph Heap. The duo is running against Democrats Clara Pratte and Jonathon Hill. Another commissioner, Nick Myers, already lost his primary.
Unfortunately, the election won’t change who decides TEP’s rates.
Whoever wins won’t be seated until January.
School’s out forever: Tucson Unified School District is proposing closing Dunham and Hudlow elementary schools on the east side, and sending students to the nearby Marshall and Sewell elementary schools, respectively, the district announced in a press release yesterday. But it’s not a done deal — the district will hold a series of public meetings on the potential closures in the next few weeks and take a vote in December, the Luminaria’s Shannon Conner writes.
More powdery threats: Democratic U.S. Reps. Adelita Grijalva, Yassamin Ansari and Greg Stanton received suspicious letters — some of which contained unknown substances — days after Arizona Secretary of State Adrian Fontes received a similar letter containing a white powder that was later deemed to not be harmful to humans, the Mirror’s Gloria Rebecca Gomez writes.
“We will not be intimidated, and we’ll keep doing the work that Arizonans elected us to do,” the trio wrote in a statement to the press.
For your national park bucket list: President Donald Trump signed into law a bill redesignating Chiricahua National Monument as a national park, the Daily Star’s Henry Brean writes. Republican U.S. Rep. Juan Ciscomani celebrated the new designation with U.S. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum at a ceremony in the Chiricahuas on Tuesday.
The Hernandi’s new PAC: Democratic Reps. Alma and Consuelo Hernandez have formed a new political action committee that is paying for canvassers, the Daily Star’s Hannah Cree reports. The Arizona Democratic Action PAC says it will spend more than $500,000 to help elect “common-sense” Democrats. The move comes after progressive Democratic Sen. Analise Ortiz created her own PAC earlier this year to attack the Hernandez sisters and Lydia Hernandez, another moderate Democrat who is not related to them, in the primary. It’s worth noting, this is the sisters’ second side hustle in politics: They also own a political consulting business with their brother Daniel Hernandez, a former state lawmaker.1
Dems showing up: Democrats — both statewide and in Pima County — are still outpacing Republicans in turning in their ballots. According to a dashboard maintained by Democratic political strategist Sam Almy, Democrats statewide have returned 17% of their ballots (about 211,000 ballots), compared to 14% for Republicans (about 209,000 ballots). In Pima County, the return rates are 18% for the Dems and 13% for the GOP.
The Arizona Citizens Clean Elections Commission is the state’s only official, nonpartisan voter education resource — created by Arizona voters for voters.
We publish the voter education guide, host the debates, and break down what’s on your ballot. Not who you should vote for — what you need to know before you do.
Get the facts at AZCleanElections.gov.
This is another reason to be glad you aren’t living in Maricopa County.
The election incompetence meter ticked into the red yesterday after Phoenix journalist Brahm Resnik posted a recording from the Maricopa County Recorder’s automated phone line.
Saying Election Day is November 4.2
Oddly enough, this has nothing to do with why Maricopa County Recorder Justin Heap was named “Most Dangerous Election Denier in Arizona” by progressive group All Voting is Local.
1 Fun fact: The Hernandez sisters’ press release about the PAC cited the Arizona Agenda’s analysis last year that found the duo was leading the pack in Democrat-sponsored bills that had passed the House.
2 Though Heap’s screwup does seem somehow less bad than the time former Maricopa County Recorder Helen Purcell screwed up the election date on only Spanish-language materials.