Tucson’s new water math

Last month, the City of Tucson and its water utility placed an order for Colorado River water from the Central Arizona Project for the 2027 water year, which began October 1.

As we reported previously, the city’s new contract for CAP water marks the first time that Tucson has ordered less than it’s entitled to by law — a move that’s necessary to accommodate federally imposed conservation requirements and basin-wide drought conditions.

City officials say Tucson’s water position is nevertheless secure, thanks to a robust water banking program, existing conservation measures and more.

But we’re no doubt entering a new era of Colorado River management.

The staff memorandum attached to the city’s order has all sorts of interesting information about how different users in the city are consuming water, what kind of existing conservation measures are in place, and more.

So today, we’re pulling out three figures from that memo that tell the story — or part of the story, at least — of Tucson’s water.

As Tucson Water chief John Kmiec told the council last month, 2027 won’t be the first time that Tucson has taken cuts to its water supply.

Tucson is entitled to 144,191 acre-feet of Colorado River water, but under existing deals like the 2019 Drought Contingency Plan, the city has already agreed to use less of that water, often in exchange for cash compensation from the federal government.

This recent conservation exists in two “buckets” (water managers love an almost-appropriate metaphor).

The first bucket saw Tucson leave about 160,000 acre-feet of its allocation in Lake Mead in between calendar years 2023 and 2026. Tucson is now preparing to leave an additional 50,000 acre-feet in Lake Mead in 2027 and possibly 2028 as well, at a compensated rate of $325 per acre-foot.

The second bucket is for conservation generated through long-term efficiency improvements.

In 2025, the city agreed to conserve 56,000 acre-feet (total) in exchange for $86.7 million from the feds for the development of an advanced water treatment facility over the following decade, allowing the city to deliver purified recycled water to consumers.

The city’s conservation under this program has accounted for 2,800 acre-feet in 2026 and will contribute an additional 2,800 acre-feet next year.

These existing programs are part of the reason that Kmiec and other city officials say Tucson is about as well-positioned as a city in these dire hydrologic circumstances could be.

One big urban user of Tucson’s water is, of course, lawns. As drought conditions have intensified, the city has worked to replace “non-functional turf” — grass lawns, basically — with desert-adapted landscaping on city and private land.

In recent years, these efforts have retired 165,000 square feet of turf in city parks and an additional 381,000 square feet on commercial and multifamily residential land. That grass-killing project was funded through the state’s Water Infrastructure Finance Authority.

These landscape transformations are expected to save almost 15 million gallons of water a year. That’s a lot of lawn, no doubt, but it only works out to about 46 acre-feet of water annually.

Every bit helps, but keep that in mind next time you’re feeling an overwhelming sense of guilt about your personal water use.

While the grant funding for these turf projects has dried up, Tucson Water is continuing to offer a rebate for customers to remove up to 12,000 square feet of grass per property this year.

It’s true, residential consumers are far from the biggest drain on water supplies. But that doesn’t mean many of you aren’t using more than you should.

In early 2026, city staff identified almost 10,000 residential customers who are exceeding the city’s water use guidelines by 250% or more. The majority of these customers — 9,861 — live in single-family residences. About 100 live in multifamily units or duplexes and triplexes.

Residents who pass this threshold receive a letter from the city providing them with information and resources to help them use water more efficiently.

For example, customers can schedule a water audit with the city. Customers who scheduled these audits in 2025 “reduced their water use by an average of 26%, collectively saving 2.8 million gallons of water,” according to the city.

But these kinds of voluntary conservation programs are always going to rely on an individual’s willingness to sacrifice for their community. And individuals just aren’t that reliable — more than 60% of high-use customers in 2025 had received communications from the city about their use the previous year.

As you may have noticed from our recent water glossaries, we’re hot about giving you the information to be a responsible, safe and cost-effective water user in our megadrought-stricken future.

Think of this data as another tool in your growing toolbox.

We’ve made it clear that, on an individual level, you’re probably not causing our drought.

But the city’s data shows there’s nevertheless lots of room for improvement, even if you don’t control an irrigation district or data center. As the foundations of interstate water governance crack, don’t stop holding the feet of big ag and industry to the fire.

Just don’t let that stop you from looking inward.

Much ado about data centers: The Oro Valley Town Council is going to consider new rules for data centers, following in the footsteps of Marana, Tucson and Pima County, Tucson Sentinel columnist Blake Morlock writes. Meanwhile, up in Casa Grande, the planning and zoning commission signed off on a conditional use permit for a 954-acre data center, writes Pinal Central’s Jodie Newell. Local residents complained about the water use, power demands and environmental impacts of a potential data center proposed by Bloom Energy, which has more than 1,000 data centers across the United States.

Grijalva ain’t shy: Democratic U.S. Rep. Adelita Grijalva had some choice words after the Border Patrol arrested protesters in Lochiel and cut down the grandmother cottonwood tree — making national news — saying DHS and its private contractors have repeatedly shown they cannot be trusted to protect sensitive cultural and environmental sites. Grijalva also spoke out against the planned ICE Detention Center last night, noting that since President Donald Trump returned to office, at least 56 people have died in ICE custody, including four in Arizona.

Pinal County vs. Brad Miller: The Pinal County Board of Supervisors has voted to file a bar complaint against Pinal County Attorney Brad Miller, the Republic’s Richard Ruelas reports. The motion was light on details, but likely related to their political fight over who has the authority to sign agreements with federal immigration authorities. The bar complaint comes after the county already sued Miller in civil court in February.

A better bus ride: While Tucson officials try to come up with ways to keep city buses safe and fare-free, Tucson City Council member Miranda Schubert traveled to New Mexico to learn more about Albuquerque’s bus ambassador program, KVOA reports. The City of Tucson has set aside $375,000 this year for a similar program, and Schubert said the program’s goal is to support drivers, help riders and respond to concerns about passenger behavior and well-being.

Scott on Prop 425: Pima County Supervisor Rex Scott writes in an op-ed in the Tucson Sentinel that Prop 425 would increase the county’s limit on annual expenditures and allow the county to spend what it collects in taxes — but it wouldn’t raise taxes. The expenditure limit hasn’t been raised since 1980. Scott blames the Pima County Republican Party and its chair Kathleen Winn — who has a daily radio program — for “counterfactual and hyperbolic arguments against Prop. 425” that made up the bulk of the “oppose” comments submitted to the publicity pamphlet that voters got in the mail.

The Arizona Citizens Clean Elections Commission is the state’s only official, nonpartisan voter education resource — created by Arizona voters for voters.

We publish the voter education guide, host the debates, and break down what’s on your ballot. Not who you should vote for — what you need to know before you do.

One of the groups that organized Tucson’s chapter of the “Free America” walkout and protests in January is taking its fight to a midtown Tucson Whole Foods today, part of a planned nationwide strategy to demonstrate the power of economic boycotts.

Shutdown Tucson has a guest of honor at today’s event, Pulitzer Prize-nominated writer and cartoonist David Fitzsimmons.

So why Whole Foods? The group wants to deliver a letter to billionaire Amazon founder Jeff Bezos warning of the economic fallout if the Trump administration declares a national emergency and cancels the midterms.

We’re not sure the Whole Foods customer service desk can help with that, but we admire the escalation from “Do you have any more oat milk?” to “Can you get Bezos on the phone?”

We might show up just to see the cartoon Fitzsimmons drew of Bezos. Some messages are best delivered with an unflattering caricature.