Throwing money at the problem

The onslaught of money pouring into Southern Arizona’s Congressional District 6 raises a chicken-or-egg question.

Which came first: the recent polls that helped prompt the Cook Political Report to relabel CD6 from a “toss-up” to “leans Democrat,” or outside groups deciding to pour their final advertising dollars into the race for the last two weeks of the election?

For example, billionaire Elon Musk’s America PAC has shelled out more than $500,000 for negative digital ads going after Democrat JoAnna Mendoza in the district.

As we noted last week, Musk might be lining his own pockets while supporting Republican U.S. Rep. Juan Ciscomani by advertising on Twitter.

Our Friday tally is probably already out of date, but independent political spending tracker Capitol Hill Access put outside spending in CD6 at $19.8 million.

That’s on top of the $7.4 million in TV ads that Mendoza has spent since joining the race last year and the $3.2 million Ciscomani has spent on TV for his reelection campaign.

So where is the money going? Mostly, television and digital advertising.

Meanwhile, groups with deep pockets keep finding places to reach you online, from YouTube ads to texting campaigns.

On the television side, those who opened their checkbooks late (or decided to buy more ads) are paying a premium for the good slots, potentially bumping a car dealer’s 30-second commercial to make room for the latest attack ad.

The biggest outside spender supporting Ciscomani is the Republican-aligned Congressional Leadership Fund, which has surpassed the $5 million mark, outspending the Ciscomani campaign.

The group spent $1 million on ads just last week.

A joint fundraising operation between the Ciscomani campaign and the National Republican Congressional Committee has put another $2 million into the race since its formation.

Mendoza’s allies, like Advancing Arizona PAC — which has spent $1.4 million on TV ads— are swooping in, too. The House Majority PAC has put $1.7 million in ads, and Everytown for Gun Safety has spent nearly $3.9 million on air time.

It is hard to tell whether a last-minute barrage will measurably affect the race, although it should be a banner year for local television stations and political consultants.

Democrats are leading the early ballot race in CD6. But that could quickly change, as Republicans tend to surge with in-person voting on Election Day.

The GOP has a 5-point voter registration advantage in the district, but the bigger number to watch is the share of independent voters with no allegiance to either party. Independents make up 35% of the district — roughly matching the Republican share.

Ciscomani’s biggest win in CD6 came in 2024, when he beat Democrat Kirsten Engel by 2.5 percentage points. In 2022, he beat Engel by 1.5 points.

Nationally, Decision Desk HQ’s polling average gives Democrats an 8-point advantage over Republicans on a generic ballot.

The feds are coming to watch Pima County vote.

The U.S. Department of Justice notified Pima County — as well as Maricopa, Apache and Navajo counties — that it will send observers to polling places on Election Day.

This isn’t a total surprise. The Department of Justice previously said it would send out 1,000 observers this November, and didn’t rule out sending representatives to every state in the country.

Now we know where they’re actually landing, and it’s three of the same counties the DOJ sent observers to during the 2026 primary. (Although we want to flag that the DOJ reportedly sent an attorney who pleaded guilty to illegally accessing election websites in Florida to observe the polls in Phoenix during the primary election.)

Pima County officials’ message back in July was “relax.” They’ve been preparing for this moment.

That July press conference included a warning for the feds: County officials said they would act against anyone who violated state elections law, including federal observers.

And those observers aren’t new to Pima County.

Former President Joe Biden’s DOJ also sent election observers to Pima County, among other places, back in 2022. That year’s Arizona list included five counties, including two that are not on this year’s list — Pinal and Yavapai counties.

Playing to the hometown crowd: Republican U.S. Rep. Andy Biggs doesn’t always talk about being brought up in liberal Tucson, but when he does, he prefers to do it in opeds in the Star. The first five words of his pitch to local voters in the Star this weekend were “As a native of Tucson…” Spoiler alert: He likes Arizona’s nature and people, but Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs is ruining it all. His endorsement from President Donald Trump — the central pitch of his campaign — didn’t appear anywhere in Biggs’ oped. Hobbs, on the other hand, made criticism of “Washington-style chaos” the centerpiece of her oped in the Star, which recounted her personal experiences trying to make ends meet and included a promise to work on housing and affordability. It looks like neither side could be bothered to write an oped specific to Tucson voters, though. Both opeds read like generic pitches to statewide voters. The Biggs team deserves some kudos for at least dropping in one reference to “Tucson” and another to “Southern Arizona.”

There is no bottom: The decades-long quest to turn the U.S.-Mexico border into a bizarre tech playground continued last week, when federal immigration agencies got the green light to test a heat ray weapon at the border. The weapon “shoots an invisible beam of electromagnetic waves that can reach a little more than half a mile away,” per CNN. Military officials say the Active Denial System is nonlethal, but it generates “an instinctive and irresistible urge to run from the effect.” Meanwhile, the new “smart wall” that’s going up along the border, including in Southern Arizona, has AI-powered cameras that can track the daily lives of 1 million people who live along the border, the New York Times reports. Oh, and that’s on top of the 4 million people who are surveilled by an older generation of cameras that will soon be fitted with AI technology. And the Trump administration wants to spend $63 million to expand the Border Patrol checkpoint on Interstate 19 near Tubac, while an official proclaims, “I can say without a doubt the border is now more secure than ever here,” the Sentinel’s Paul Ingram reports. (Of course, that checkpoint has been wrapped up in the usual transparency shenanigans, Alessandra De Zubeldia reports for the Nogales International.)

Ahead of the curve: The Marana Town Council just tightened the rules on data centers, including on one data center project that’s already in the works, Hannah Cree reports for the Star. The vote was 5-1 to tighten noise restrictions and require companies to take specific steps to decommission data centers if they go offline. The only “no” vote came from Councilmember Patrick Cavanaugh, though his objection was that the restrictions didn’t go far enough, and he worried whether they “will actually be enforceable.” The town manager noted that Marana has been way ahead of the game when it comes to data center regulations, including passing an initial ordinance in December 2024, well before any developers came knocking.

Um, actuuuuaaallly: Cochise County supervisors are considering the optics of adding $30 million to the price of building a new jail, Matt Hickman reports for the Herald/Review. The initial estimate was $130 million, but now it’s looking more like $160 million. One option the supervisors discussed was a general fund bond, which wouldn’t require them to go back, yet again, to the public and ask for more money for the jail. Still, voters could ding the supervisors at the ballot box in 2028.

Drip, drip, drip: The daily announcements of proposed school closures continue. On Thursday, Tucson Unified School District officials proposed closing Joseph W. Magee Middle School and sending students to the Sabino High School campus, the Sentinel’s Mia Kortright reports. That was the fourth school closure announcement last week, and the first one that involved a high school. The fifth announcement came on Friday, when TUSD officials proposed closing Marguerite L. Collier Elementary School on North Bear Canyon Road. If you’re trying to keep up with the closure process, the Arizona Luminaria has a handy list of all the schools that could be affected. The actual decision whether to close the schools won’t happen until December.

The Arizona Citizens Clean Elections Commission is the state’s only official, nonpartisan voter education resource — created by Arizona voters for voters.

We publish the voter education guide, host the debates, and break down what’s on your ballot. Not who you should vote for — what you need to know before you do.

Ever wonder what it would look like if local immigration attorney Mo Goldman were challenging Republican U.S. Rep. Juan Ciscomani?

We might be getting a sneak peek, considering Goldman recently formed the Meet the Moment PAC with his leftover campaign funds.

Goldman dropped out of the congressional race last year to support fellow Democrat JoAnna Mendoza, but apparently nobody told his opposition research department.

He used some of his campaign cash on a new website and bought 50 campaign signs asking “What’s Juan Hiding?” He even left some of the signs outside Ciscomani’s midtown office.

As for the “Cheeto dust don’t lie” line, Goldman says Ciscomani has spent months distancing himself from President Donald Trump — but is pretty sure everyone can connect the dots.

Goldman’s JuanCFacts.com promises to soon post “unearthed love letters from Juan and Don,” but we are not holding our breath.