RIP to the Great State of Maricopa.
When the Legislature comes back in January, Republican lawmakers might feel like they’re sitting in the back of a Tucson City Council meeting.
The GOP was in charge for decades, but it got hammered at the polls, so Democrats are set to take over both chambers of the Legislature.
The size of the Southern Arizona Democratic voting bloc is undeniable. And with the majority comes power. For the first time in decades, lawmakers from the Old Pueblo will actually have a chance to shape state policy in a meaningful way.
Who exactly will lead the House and Senate is still somewhat of a mystery, but the smart money is on Democratic Sen. Priya Sundareshan for Senate president next year. (She’s the minority leader in the state Senate right now and, as co-chair of the Arizona Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, was instrumental in Tuesday’s wins.)
Senate Democrats are set to pick their new leadership team next Tuesday. House Democrats are meeting on Friday to pick the next speaker.
Meanwhile, Democratic Rep. Alma Hernandez, who has honed her deal-making abilities for years (including reaching across the aisle to Republican lawmakers), will certainly be an influence in the newly empowered caucus. After serving eight years in the House, she jumped chambers and will be in the Senate next year.
The list goes on.
Beyond growing their influence as they step into the majority in both chambers, Tucson’s Democratic delegation is also growing in numbers.
Over in Legislative District 17, it looks like Democratic Rep. Kevin Volk’s win in 2024 wasn’t a fluke. He’s poised to win reelection, alongside Democrat Holly Lyon in the House and Edgar Soto in the Senate, each of whom are on the cusp of flipping a Republican-held seat.
At last count, Pima County has roughly 67,000 ballots left to count, with the bulk expected to be counted today.
Why does a Democratic takeover of the Legislature matter?
For years, one of the main complaints among Democratic lawmakers was that their bills never get heard. Bills on groundwater regulation, housing and more recently, data centers, just withered on the vine as Republican committee chairs refused to hear them.
Now Democrats get to dust off those bills and try again.
It’s been a similar situation with local Democratic officials at the City of Tucson, Pima County and other Southern Arizona municipalities. Many of their legislative priorities were dead on arrival at the GOP-controlled Legislature.
Starting in January, they’ll find a much friendlier audience for their ideas at the capitol, including Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs, who just won another four-year term.
Those Tucson bills could get signed into law faster than you can say “the Veto Queen renounced her crown.”
Pima County Democratic Party Chair Eric Robbins said younger generations have only known the status quo of Republican rule.
“Arizona voters who haven’t had a Democratic Legislature in their lifetime just opted for one. What used to be the GOP spiraled away into culture war buzzwords and algo-hate-politics,” Robbins told us.
What it means
We know a lot of Agenda readers are keenly interested in groundwater, especially as the Colorado River allocation dwindles.
Those water issues could get a whole new look in January.
Until now, most water-related legislation was tied up by Republican Rep. Gail Griffin, chair of the Natural Resources, Energy and Water Committee and perpetual opponent of almost any new groundwater regulations. (Griffin is still on track to win the LD19 Senate seat.)
But Griffin won’t be in the majority party any longer, which means she won’t chair the committee. That job will fall to a Democrat, possibly Sundareshan. She’s an attorney with an extensive background in environmental, natural resource, and water legislation.
Oh, and the budget. We don’t expect anyone to go after Rio Nuevo again with Tucson Democrats having a seat at the budget table.
We also know a lot of Agenda readers aren’t exactly fans of data centers. The Democrats made hay out of nixing tax incentives for data centers this year, while Republican lawmakers largely tried to encourage what they see as future economic powerhouses.
And what about issues like immigration? You’ll definitely see a different tone coming from the Legislature with Democrats in charge.
In short, this is a whole new political paradigm that seemed a distant possibility 48 hours ago.
Stay tuned, and we’ll keep you abreast of it all.