Despite every estimate that the Congressional District 7 primary was going to see low turnout, the latest figures are trending toward the special election outpacing both the 2022 and 2024 primaries.
We worked closely with Sam Almy, the data guru at Uplift Campaigns, to do the math for the returned ballots in the CD7 special election — specifically Democratic ballots — up until last Thursday.
So far, 42,137 Democratic Primary ballots have been returned. That’s 4,500 more than 2024 and about 500 away from 2022’s figure.
A large chunk of these voters in the primary are very reliable voters who turn out to vote every two years, Almy said.
Seeing that returns are higher than 2024 does seem to suggest that there is more enthusiasm in the Democratic base, he added.
And the interest goes beyond the base. A lot more independents asked for a Democratic ballot this year, compared to the 2024 primary.
Last year, 1,875 returns were from independent voters casting a Democratic ballot.
This year, 5,423 returns are from independent voters casting a Democratic ballot.
While increased turnout is always great, it is harder to know in the moment if it will benefit a specific candidate.
Where to vote
If you still have your CD7 ballot, there is still time to drop it off. Please don’t mail it in.
During business hours you can drop it off at:
Recorder’s Office drop-off site, 6550 S. Country Club
Palo Verde High School - ATC Room, 1302 S Avenida Vega
Sahuarita High School - ACE Room, 350 W Sahuarita Rd
Roadrunner Elementary School, 16651 W Calle Carmela
Pascua Yaqui Tribe - Tribal Chambers - 7474 S Camino de Oeste
Ajo Early Voting Site, 120 W Estrella Ave TOKA Community Building, 51 Baboquivari D
If you want to check on the status of your ballot, you can do so here.
Tomorrow, July 15, is the last day to vote in the special election.
And if you’re a political junkie who’s going to be at the election-night parties, say hello! We’ll be there to get comments from candidates and their supporters for Wednesday’s edition. It’s going to be a good one!
We love covering elections, and there are plenty more to cover between now and November 2026. Get the skinny from an independent local outfit by upgrading to a paid description today.
Politics makes for some crazy bedfellows.
Republican state Rep. Rachel Keshel is asking Arizona Attorney General Kris Mayes to investigate whether LUCHA “unlawfully collected early ballots” and violated other campaign finance-related laws on behalf of Adelita Grijalva.
Some politicos are quietly blaming one of Grijalva‘s Congressional District 7 rivals for the high-profile complaint days before the Democratic primary.
Grijalva said it’s rich that Keshel is the person demanding election integrity.
Last year, Keshel authored a measure that sought to give the state Legislature authority over the appointment of presidential electors, in part due to the false claim that the 2020 and 2022 elections were illegally administered.
“It’s a shame taxpayer dollars are being wasted on bogus complaints by MAGA politicians. The hypocrisy is rich coming from someone who pushed lies about the 2020 election and sponsored legislation to strip Arizonans of their right to choose the president by letting the Legislature override the popular vote,” Grijalva told the Tucson Agenda.
Your papers, please: As masked federal agents descend on cities and towns across the country, two Tucson Samaritans say plainclothes Homeland Security Investigations agents aimed assault-style rifles at them and handcuffed them near the border wall east of Sasabe, the Arizona Daily Star’s Emily Bregel reports. The migrant aid volunteers, Gail Kocourek, 74, and Evan Spry, 22, filed a notice of claim against the federal government, a precursor to a lawsuit. They say the agents were in an unmarked vehicle when they tried to stop the volunteers. The area is known for vigilante activity, which caused the volunteers to fear for their lives. They drove around the vehicle and the agents pursued them. When the volunteers saw a marked Border Patrol vehicle, they stopped to tell the Border Patrol agent they were being pursued by armed men. The HSI agents then arrived, pointed their weapons at them and handcuffed them.
Stuck at the border: Now that the asylum process has been shut down at the U.S.-Mexico border, some asylum seekers are making their claims for help to Mexican officials, the Nogales International’s Daisy Zavala Magaña reported. The Kino Border Initiative, which helps migrants and asylum seekers in Nogales, Sonora, says they’ve seen a big increase this year as asylum seekers try to get legal status in Mexico, which means they’ll be able to get healthcare and the right to work.
Stuck on a rollercoaster: President Donald Trump said he planned to levy a 30% tariff on imports from Mexico starting Aug. 1, the Associated Press reported. Trump announced tariffs on Mexico earlier this year, but later said he’d hold off on tariffs on certain goods if Mexican officials clamped down on immigration and drug smuggling. Unauthorized migration at the U.S.-Mexico border is at historic lows, but Trump said Mexico hasn’t done enough on drug smuggling. Elsewhere in tariff news, Trump said he plans to levy a 50% tariff on copper imports, which could be a boon to mining companies in Arizona, the New York Times reported.
Case study: While Tucson and Pima County officials wrestle with the potential arrival of a new data center, Arizona Corporation Commissioner Kevin Thompson said the rapid growth of data centers in the Phoenix area was alarming, and an executive at APS said the utility does “not have the energy and transmission infrastructure to support the amount of energy that’s being requested of us,” AZFamily’s Morgan Loew, Cody Lillich and Shane Egan report.
No refunds so far: Arizona officials are seeing more claims under Proposition 312, the voter-approved measure that allows residents to request a property tax refund if local officials don’t deal with homelessness, the Arizona Republic’s Sasha Hupka reported. So far, more than two dozen requests have been filed — including one in Tucson — but all of them were either incomplete or rejected by local officials. Pima County also got their first Prop 312 claim recently, but county officials said it was going to be rejected. The person behind the complaint wants to be reimbursed for cameras he bought in 2020 — about four years before voters put Prop 312 on the books.
At some point, we all knew the Congressional District 7 race was going to blow up on TikTok.
The latest? A flurry of new videos targeting candidate Deja Foxx — which is ironic, considering she basically lives online and thrives there, including on TikTok.
One creator, fullylivep, tries to come for Foxx but ends up airing out some truly wild math about Daniel Hernandez instead.
He claims Hernandez is in third place behind Foxx and Adelita Grijalva — but also somehow polling at 41%. So... either Daniel’s actually in second, or someone needs to double-check their calculator app.
In another video, fullylivep argues Foxx should’ve locked down a Progressive Caucus endorsement — conveniently forgetting that Adelita Grijalva’s dad, Raúl Grijalva, used to be the caucus’ chair.
Math? Missing. Context? Gone. But the content? Extremely online.
Tiktok failed to load.Enable 3rd party cookies or use another browser
Just FYI. Rachel Keshel is the wife of notoriously scammy election denier professional Seth Keshel, who makes a living off spreading lies about election insecurity and non-existent fraud. Anything she says about elections is guaranteed 100% bunkum. Their 'evidence' is that they claim they have footage of LUCHA volunteers holding mail-in ballotsz; total hogwash. We need to get that scam artist out of office! Support Democratic candidates for LD 17, and rid Arizona of this plague of Keshels.
Keshel is a joke nobody is laughing at. She is an election denying bozo. She will be part of the goofy little group of GOP malcontents in attendance at a Benson clambake organized by Turning Point Neo-Nazi Charlie Kirk. Even ASU said "no" to him and they take money from everybody. Butierrez & Candy Biggs will also attend. Ohhh boy...hand out the party favors. Just when you thought the upper limits to Republican boorishness had been met and exceeded. No. It hasn't.